There will always be TRAs, but it it seems that the movement is losing ground and that more and more people are becoming tired of them. I give them 3-5 years till the movement becomes pretty much dead. I think it will be a mixture of people getting annoyed by them and the TRA allies getting bored of the topic, after awhile there's only so much you can say.
What topic do you think will replace them?
Personally, I think the trans stuff lasts a few more years, and then it will be a mix of people being tired of them, plus detransitioners, plus them pushing the pedo stuff too much into the open. I think people are, generally speaking, getting too tired of identity politics and the excesses of “social justice” and post-modernism/relativism in general, and the next thing is a swing of the pendulum. Hopefully not so far that Matt Walsh will be happy, but I think the next thing will be talking about how all this (not just gender ideology) is harmful to society and individuals (like we do here). It’s all unsustainable societally/politically, but it’s also so harmful to individuals that I think individuals will reach a breaking point. I guess, I think we’re almost to a cultural breaking point with all this. I think the next thing is a re-articulation and assertion of actual values that help individuals and society.
It's hard to imagine how this will all be rolled back when I literally am asked my 'gender identity' on institutional forms, and the other day was expected to state on a form whether I 'identified as disabled' (at this point I just 'decline to state' anything that has to do with 'identifying as' anything, as I don't identify as anything)--on the other hand, this all happened very quickly, maybe it can disappear just as quickly, who knows.
It also worries me that so many kids are being taught gender ideology as 'fact'--not sure how difficult it will be to undo that, when they learn it so young.
the movement might die in that time but repealing the legislation they have pushed through, and undoing the instituitional capture, will take much longer.
the fact that prominent TERFs are in a position where, to get their voices amplified and money to do their work, they sometimes end up working with very right wing organisations that want to remove our reproductive rights and push us back towards traditional womens roles makes me worry that the next steps will be steps backwards. i.e. we will get our single sex spaces back but lose ground elsewhere. i hope i'm wrong.
i understand why those women do that, we need all the money and airspace we can get and the dangers of TRAs are so widespread that the calculation of losing some rights to safeguard others works out such that it might be worth it in the short term. but i'm not optimistic about the short to medium term. we are facing attacks from all angles.
To add onto your first paragraph, I know someone who theorizes it’ll still be around for much longer due to schools adopting gender curriculums.
I completely agree with your first point. I think that kids will start finding trans identities uncool in about 2 years and that pronoun circles at work will be all but gone within five years, but it's going to take forever to undo legislation, public health guidance, and other remnants of institutional capture. That's part of the reason why I push back really heavily on "inclusive language" where it doesn't belong - fighting to keep sex-based language now may last for many years.
Great point. Even if/when this fades, our institutions, governments, laws, and organizations will take a long time to recover and get back on course. I’m optimistic that the pendulum won’t swing too far the other way, but it’s still going to take a massive effort to hold the line and then reclaim what we’ve lost.
I don't think it will ever go away completely. I do think a lot of reasonable people are starting to see that it's going too far. And I think it will fall out of being trendy for teens and young adults in that 3-5 year timespan, and we may hear less about it after that as it becomes less culturally relevant, due to that. Like a cult though it will always find new members in vulnerable people. But as far as the fixing the mess it's made from a legal standpoint, I think that's harder to say.
I don’t know when this will “end” if ever. But I hope that if/when this movement peaks, the next step will be reversal of the policies and recompense, including apologies from the major institutions and governments that were captured by this, and a naming and shaming (and mass firing) of its most prominent advocates (like the Pritzkers, Rothblatt, and the paragons of so-called q~eer theory).
I want public statements on record that no child is born in the ‘wrong’ body, sex is physical and immutable; ‘gender’ is a set of stereotypes; there is no such thing as “non-binary-gender”; and especially, a woman is an adult human female. I want that chevron flag designated a homophobic and misogynistic hate symbol, the q~eer swastika (note: the Nazis’ designation for gay people they sought to eliminate was, infamously, a pink triangle, just like the sharp spear gutting the LGB rainbow like an invading army).
As for what the next “thing” is or ought to be, I hope to see a return to empirical evidence, rational inquiry, and open debate in the academy. If it’s junk science, call it that based on the facts, rather than because it doesn’t check these or those boxes in a DIE statement. Or because even broaching X subject purportedly “opens the door to genocide.”
In terms of what I would like to see as the next ideology to fall, because I have a personal stake as a sufferer of mental illness, I hope it’s “mad pride”/“neurodivergency” and its cousins in “crip pride.” I want honest studies to be done on the biological roots of things like schizophrenia, autism, and A.D.H.D. with intent of finding a cure. Not this TRA-mimicking, Woke Scientology nonsense that brands someone a Nazi eliminationist because he or she wants to be normal (oh, how they hate that word) rather than suffer from a broken brain. There are even people who want spinal cord research kiboshed because it supposedly discriminates against “people of diverse mobility.” I kid you not.
(NB: I had an argument recently with someone who said that Michael J. Fox is a “self-hating eugenicist” because he’s working on eliminating a subset of neurodivergent people, and would condemn them to the Canadian euthanasia project if he could. Fuck me, I had no idea that Parkinsonians were a disappearing race. Seriously, Doc, that’s heavy.)
I would be very happy if this whole 'neurodivergent pride' thing died too. In my country, it's already starting - Kids who reach the age of majority are currently working to have their disabilities removed from their record, largely because the problem was dependant on outside factors that the mental health workers outright ignored, or didn't bother to look into.
I think this would result in more resources put aside for people who genuinely suffer and have no chances of recovery, as well as separate them from non-disabled people who just got dealt a bad hand.
I had an argument recently with someone who said that Michael J. Fox is a “self-hating eugenicist” because he’s working on eliminating a subset of neurodivergent people
By doing what, exactly? Trying to cure Parkinson' s?
Ayup. And thus "opening the door" to eugenics, due to his foundation's emphasis on stem-cell research and inquiry into the genetics of Parkinson's. "We don't know what kind of gifts his condition confers." This person was also going off about how Elon Musk's concept car resembled the DeLorean, and believed without a shred of proof that Musk and Fox were "collaborating" on something sinister. Even though Michael J. Fox didn't actually invent the DeLorean. It was designed by... a guy named DeLorean.
Honestly sometimes these self-declared progressives sound like George Bush's pro-life brigade in their paranoid ignorance around stem-cell research.
"We don't know what kind of gifts his condition confers."
🤦♀️🤦♀️🤦♀️
The "neurodivergent" movement has been so harmful overall.
Not to mention people the swaths of people self-diagnosing autism and ADHD to be trendy and to use it as an excuse for their own bad behavior is annoying. I had someone tell me that people called them "passive aggressive" but since they were self-diagnosed autistic that actually it was impossible for them to be passive aggressive because they don't understand subtlety in social situations. And then proceeded to be one of the most passive aggressive people I've ever met. As someone with ADHD, everyone suddenly thinking they have ADHD is also more harmful than helpful. Being addicted to your phone doesn't mean you have ADHD. I feel like it's just the next evolution of everyone claiming to have depression and anxiety on Tumblr in 2013, which is also where the trans craze started.
In 2017, a woman on a blog theorized that TRAs had between 6 and 8 years until their movement became irrelevant. IIRC, she posted that in spring 2017, so we’re just beginning to enter that timeframe.
I’ve heard people say 2022 was a year we’ve made a lot of progress in. Not like I’d know, though, not having been peaked for a full year yet.
Back in 2013, I really thought this thing was a minor fad and things would be back to normal soon. Then I was appalled to see it taking root in some other places in 2016, metastasizing. I dunno. There have been mass hysterias that have lasted a pretty long time.
I don't think it'll end. Maybe someone who is more knowledgeable on social issues would know but I don't remember any issues that progressives have pealed back on. The one thing extremists on both sides have in common is their inability to admit they were wrong.
If nothing else, we go into ecological collapse, in a way that nobody is going to like. Once people in the developed world are struggling to get enough food, sympathy runs out for former trans people who can no longer get their medicines. The fact this can even be a current mass hysteria at all shows how good things really are right now, and what a time of prosperity we currently live in.
But, it's not going to last.
I think the next insidious thing is we will lower the age of consent to 16. First it will be voting, then sex.
in a lot of the US, it is 16. The idea that it's 18 got popularized by tv and movies because in California, it's 18.
I'd love to see it raised to 18 nationwide (with Romeo & Juliet-type exceptions I suppose), just like a few states have outright banned marriage for people under 18.
Depends if you mean the trend or the misogynists taking advantage, the kids will move on within about 5 years I think as they are increasingly mocked and called out, getting rid of all the stonewall indoctrination of businesses and laws that support groomers and sex offenders I think will take far longer as the wheels move slowly and they don't want to lose face.
no idea what the next thing will be maybe it will be a revival of womens rights and feminism as this whole thing if recognized in the mainstream can only be attributed to a a total disdain for women, coupled with Afghanistan and Iran and the lose of abortion rights in america it could well lead to resurgence of interest in womens rights
It may start to become more obvious that all this woke stuff wasn't really about 'social justice', but about creating the conditions for revolution, an attempt to bring topple capitalism entirely.
The US already appears to be in a state of rapid decline (tribal/dishonest politics and media, weak economy, poverty, lawlessness, incapacitated police force, combined with a whole lot of guns), and the UK isn't far behind (few guns, so limits the crime problem somewhat, though)
If things aren't that dire... maybe it'll just descend further into idiocracy, perhaps transracialism or trans-age gaining legal protections. Or groups like furries added to the 2SLGBTQIA++ alphabet.
Perhaps a push for the right to vote for children, if mass migration doesn't succeed at eliminating conservatives as a political force?
As long as men are watching porn, we will have a steady supply of AGPs, unfortunately, and they are the ones who make the most noise and make the most demands. :(