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Excel Pope blogs here about some developments in Scotland. The interesting part for me is the detail on the BBC opinion poll on the trans debate.

Pulling out some of the more interesting stuff near the end:

Question 7a, for example, asks whether the respondent agrees that it’s important for legislation to continue to provide for single-sex spaces, such as hospital wards or changing rooms. Here 64% of women agree, compared to only 59% of men. Disagreement is just 8% amongst women. Unfortunately, we can’t break this down further by both gender and age, but we can see that even in the youngest age group (16-24) agreement still wins hands down (47% vs 15%)

The follow-up question, on whether transwomen should be able to use women’s toilets seems to contradict this, with the plurality of women (45%) saying that they should be able to, compared to only 20% who say they should not.

The issue with this question is that it offers only 4 options. Either transwomen are allowed to use female toilets, they are not, you have no opinion, or you don’t know. There is no nuance and once you, not unreasonably, remove the no opinions and the don’t knows you have a super-majority of women (70%) in favour of TW being allowed to use female toilets. Expect to see that number a lot in future arguments.

How fortunate, then, that at question 12, a little more detail is obtained. Question 12 asks when transwomen should be able to use single sex spaces, such as toilets and changing rooms. Here the options are either by simply identifying as a woman, by going through a process to legally change their sex, by legally changing their sex and having sex-change surgery, not at all, or don’t know.

Here the numbers are much more finely balanced. Both overall and looking at female respondents only, a minority (28% and 36%, respectively) say that transwomen who have not surgically changed sex should be allowed to enter female spaces. Excluding the don’t knows splits female respondents almost evenly, with 43% saying that uncut transwomen should be allowed in and another 43% saying only after surgery, and 14% saying, no, not at all.