I think the pendulum will swing back hard and it will include effects on LGB and women's rights. I'm quite pessimistic.

Where is the "people will pretend they didnt fall for this shit and everything will be quietly swept under the rug while women still suffer"

I think this issue in particular will be the straw on the camel’s back that pushes us toward a massive conservative backlash in every area, from the environment to welfare to education to religion and more. The political liberal side has shown itself to be absolutely willing to lie about ridiculous things and undermine logical truth - they’ve lost all claim to be the fact-based, scientific side - so I think people will revert to the more “traditional” side, no matter how awful and illogical and unscientific that side is as well. People like the devil they know.

I don’t think it’s possible for the West to walk back from this issue alone without other things getting thrown under the bus, so to speak. I don’t think it will be just “no sex can access the other space.” Men will still be able to do whatever they want; I think we are heading to “women need to be kept out of public life.” Not just LGB rights, but women’s rights will evaporate.

Edit: clarity

I didn't quite understand what you meant until I read your explanation, but I voted for the second.

I do think the backlash will be strong, and unfortunately affect women and homo/bisexuals as well.

What I mean by the 1970s approach is the one popularized by old-school gender clinicians with years of medical gatekeeping and only TruTrans TIPs being given medical interventionsand doctors' letters explaining that they need access to spaces for the opposite sex.

In the 1970s, TIPs weren't universally subjected to "years of medical gatekeeping" by "old-school gender clinicians" like you're assuming, though.

The only "old-school gender clinicians" who practiced considerable "gatekeeping" in the 1970s were the ones who worked at reputable establishment clinics and hospitals - usually ones affiliated with leading medical schools and research centers like Johns Hopkins and Universtity of California Los Angeles in the USA, and VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam in the Netherlands - and for the very few state-funded, government-run health systems that began to perfom and/or pay for "sex change" procedures at some point in course of the 1970s, starting with Sweden and the Nethelands in 1972 and England and France at the end of the decade.

Moreover, in the 1970s TIMs who had the funds to travel and pay cash out of pocket could easily skirt whatever medical gatekeeping was in place in their own countries, local areas and medical systems by getting on an airplane and going to see one of the independent medical doctors who'd were in the business back then of prescribing hormone blockers, cross-sex hormones and performing so-called "sex change" surgeries on patients without any of the psychiatric evaluations and counseling followed by clinicians who worked at insitutions that hewed to a "gatekeeping" model.

In the 1970s, both Georges Burou in Casablanca, Morroco and Stanely Biber in Trinidad, Colorado, USA did so-called "sex change" surgeries on thousands of men from around the world without performing or requiring proof of psych evaluations, counseling or any other kinds of mental-health gatekeeping.

In the 1970s, if adults seeking a "sex change" had the cash to pay and were physically healthy enough to undergo hormone interventions and surgeries, medical men like Burou and Biber - and their many lesser-known counterparts who made a point of keeping much lower profiles in order stay "on the down low" - would give these patients what they wanted.

As to the contention that in the 1970s, it was customary for "old-school gender clinicians" to give "TruTrans TIPs"

doctors' letters explaining that they need access to spaces for the opposite sex.

I'd like to see some evidence that this really was the case. To me, the "doctors' letters" you're speaking about sound like totally made-up malarkey, the stuff of TRA fiction posted in recent years by social media sites reddit. I was around in the 1970s, and I personally knew a man who had medical procedures to effect as so-called "sex change" back then (hormonal medications starting circa 1971-72, and genital surgery in 1974). But I've never heard of these letters before. Nor has anyone else I've asked about them. So OP, I'd really appreciate if you'd share some "receipts."

Surely if these supposed letters really were "a thing" in the 1970s, then there has to be some evidence of them like preserved originals or at least photocopies and photographs of them. Surely someone has to remember what these letters looked like, how exactly they were worded, on what authority they were issued, who checked them and under what circumstances, and on whose authority the letter-checkers were acting. And surely there have to be people who were alive in the 1970s who saw these letters and remember them well enough to counter and correct the memories of all the people I personally know who were around in the 70s but who have no recollection of them.

As I recall things, in the 70s (and the 80s, 90s and 2000s too), so-called "gender clincians" simply told the "transsexual" patients they saw and treated to go ahead and start using spaces for the opposite sex. No one was handing out, carrying around, or asking to see "doctors' letters" that functioned as permission slips, passes or licenses granting access to facilities meant for the opposite sex.

Yes, back in the 1970s, 80s and 90s patients who sought "sex change" services at establishment health care facilities and through government-run and funded systems that imposed various kinds of gatekeeping were typically required to "live as" or LARP as the opposite sex FT in the real world for a certain length of time before their clinicians would approve them for so-called "sex change" hormones and surgeries. For males, this meant using women's restrooms and fitting rooms, going to women's hair salons, joining women's organizations, shopping in women's clothing stores or in women's departments in larger stores. But AFAIK, neither in the 70s nor at any other time was it customary for "old-school gender clinicians" to give people they considered "TruTrans TIPs" any kind of "doctors' letters explaining they need access to spaces for the opposite sex."

If TIPs in the 70s really were customarily given such letters, and these letter were used to give individuals considered "TruTrans" rights and privileges to access spaces for the opposite sex that were denied to individuals who wanted to get into those spaces but couldn't get doctors' letters, then that inevitably would have createad a two-tier caste system in the "trans community" - and surely that would have generated an enormous amount of resentment, complaints, hissy fits and allegations of unfairness from "the trans community" towards "gender clinicians" and their gatekeeping.

If "TruTrans" really did customarily get doctors' letters in the 1970s explaining that they needed special entitlements to opposite-sex spaces that other TIPs didn't get, then the practice inevitably would have led to plenty of bad blood, feuding and knock-down, drag-out physical fights between the letter-havers and the letter-wanters in the "trans community" too.

Also, in no time at all, oodles of TIPs and legions of garden-variety pervs and creeps - peeping Toms, fetishists and dangerous sex offenders - would have gotten into the habit of making, carrying around and brandishing fake versions of these doctors' letters to prove that they too belong to the special privileged caste who "need access to spaces for the opposite sex."

If If "TruTrans" really did customarily get special doctors' letters saying "So-and so needs access to spaces for the opposite sex" in the 1970s, then surely some so-called "transsexuals" from back then would have mentioned these letters - and shown images of them - in their memoirs and interviews. Indeed, many would have had their doctors' letters framed and laminated and then hung them on their walls the way people do with college diplomas. Since these doctors' letters would have come to be seen as TIPs' ulimate "validation badges," many who had them would have taken every opportunity they could to show them off to others - much like the way TIMs like Blaire White and Munroe Bergdorf constantly display and flaunt the factory-made plastic bags of silicone they've had implanted in their chests to show off how "womanly they are," and Char Clymer loves to flash about his gold lamé clutch purse to show that he's a bona-fide laydee too.

In the 1970s (and before and since), TIMs who sought and received medical interventions that were billed as "sex change" procedures like James Jan Morris, Richard Raskin/Renee Richards and April Ashley took it as their right to use women's spaces. Many of the male medical doctors and psychotherapists these men consulted - who served as their enablers - actively encouraged them to horn in on spaces for women and girls, as did other TIMs and cross-dressers. Indeed, in the 1970s, medical doctors and therapists who practiced "gender care" in health care facilities and systems where "gatekeeping" was the norm typically required male patients seeking "sex change" procedures to use women's spaces prior to their so-called medical transitions in order to prove to the clinicians' satisfaction that 1) these men were truly dedicated to pretending to be the opposite sex out in the "real world" 24/7/365 ; and 2) these men could "pass" as women out in the real world too.

But other than that, none of the blokes AFAIK who sought to get so-called "sex change" procedures back in the 1970s asked anyone for permission to use spaces and services meant for women and girls. TIMs like Morris, Raskin/Richards and Ashley did as they wanted because they were all privileged, supremely self-centered men with gargantuan egos and massive senses of male entitlement who took it for granted that if they wanted access to spaces and services meant for women and girls, that was their god-given right. And the "gender clinicians" who treated, counseled and advised TIMs and TIPs in the 70s - as well as other TIPs - seemed to be in agreement that TIPs, and especially TIMs, should be able to go wherever the hell they wanted if it served to "affirm" and "validate" their delusions that they had become the opposite sex or were members of the opposite sex "born in/trapped in the wrong body."

In the 1970s, the only time it seems to have occurred to any of the men who practiced "gender medicine" in that era and the patients they treated that it might be appropriate or even required for so-called "transsexuals" to need permissison to gain access to spaces for the opposite sex was after Richard Raskin became Renee Richards and started competing and cleaning up in women's elite tennis in the US and many in the press and public objected. Tellingly, Raskin Richards did not seek permission before he started signing up for and competing in women's tennis, or before he started using women's locker rooms and loos, either. No in the 1970s, Raskin Richards simply did what he wanted to do when he wanted to do because he was wealthy, self-centered, arrogant, supremely entitled, privileged and pampered American white man who grew up always getting his way and being catered to - and as a result, he considered it his right to do whatever the fuck he wanted, no matter how unfair and harmful his behavior was to others.

When US tennis officials finally told Raskin Richards in 1976 that he couldn't play couldn't play in the US Women's Open or other professional women's tennis tourneys, Raskin Richards sued, insisting that not letting him play women's pro tennis was a violation of his "human rights." Many men then working as "gender clinicians" stepped up and testified on Raskin Richards' behalif in both the formal court proceedings and the court of public opinion at the time. And the male judge in NY state trial court who heard and decided Raskin Richards' case ruled in his favor, issuing an injunction in 1977 that prevented US tennis officials from excluding Raskin Richards from women's tennis and decreeing in his ruling that Raskin Richards "is now female":

When an individual such as plaintiff, a successful physician, a husband and father, finds it necessary for his own mental sanity to undergo a sex reassignment, the unfounded fears and misconceptions of defendants must give way to the overwhelming medical evidence that this person is now female.

But the court ruling in the case of Raskin Richards in 1977 was a one-off. The fact that a NY state judge issued that document does not lend credence to the claim that in the 1970s "gender clincians" who practiced gatekeeping were in the habit of giving their "TruTrans" patients "doctors letters explaining they need access to spaces for the opposite sex."

It will have to go to the more conservative option, because ALL of the current and upcoming "gender clinicians" have bought full in to gender ideology. They absolutely will NOT pull back or police themselves to return to 1970's style treatments.

The ONLY way to stop them will be laws making doctors fearful of jail/lawsuits. Otherwise, this will keep going.

The 1970s approach in pop culture isn't something we will go back to. Every TV show had a "trans episode" but they always hired actual women to play the TIM. Nowadays, folks would riot because the TIM should be a real TIM, which isn't wrong but can they handle the fact they don't look like women? Not once was there a TIF episode, we all know why.

I’ll never stop fighting for LGB. I wouldn’t be surprised if they get hit with backlash.

I sincerely hope that ALL TIMs will be kicked out of women's spaces, but that's wishful thinking.

It might well go back to mixed sex prisons (those were a thing for a loooong time before our feminist foremothers changed it).

I am not overly optimistic.

I think it will end up with the tru trans being lumped in with the agps and queerios and no one will be able to medically transition bc it’s obviously bad medicine and practice to do so. Personally I don’t care what people do with their bodies after they are 18 and can pay for it themselves, but I don’t think insurance should pay and I don’t think doctors should offer these surgeries that just result in suffering. I personally hope that the trans trend dies and the kids move on to something less radical.