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ProxyMusicSeptember 29, 2024(Edited September 29, 2024)

A historic new study out of Scotland shows the real-world impact of vaccines against the human papillomavirus: The country has detected no cases of cervical cancer in women born between 1988-1996 who were fully vaccinated against HPV between the ages of 12 and 13.

Many previous studies have shown that HPV vaccines are extremely effective in preventing cervical cancer. But the study, published on Monday in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute, is the first to monitor a national cohort of women over such a long time period and find no occurrence of cervical cancer.

The authors of the Scotland study monitored the records of all women born between 1988 and 1996 who were eligible for cancer screening, about 450,000 women.

No cases of cervical cancer were found among the women who were vaccinated before they turned 14

“In that age group, I expected about 15 to 17 a year in Scotland — and we have had none" [said the lead researcher]

women who received the three-dose protocol between the ages of 14 and 22 also benefited significantly. While some cases of cervical cancer were recorded in this group, the incidence (3.2 cases per 100,000 women) was two and a half times lower than among unvaccinated women (8.4 cases per 100,000 women).

Athough the results of this study are very positive, I think STAT News is being a bit hyperbolic in the way it's ballyhooing the findings. I especially take issue with the way that STAT News is hailing the study as historic and unprecedented because it was done "over such a long time period."

The fact is, the women in this study were all only 24 to 32 at the time the study was done. So the study doesn't tell us anything about the longterm effectiveness of the HPV vaccine in preventing both HPV and the development of cervical cancer over the full course of women's lives.

The findings of this study show that for young women in Scotland born between 1988-1996 who got the HPV vaccine at age 12-13, the chance of being diagnosed with cervical cancer in the next 20 years was reduced to nil; and women in the same narrow age group who got the the HPV vaccine when they were between 14 and 22 had a greatly reduced chance of being diagnosed with cervical cancer in the relatively short span of years between when they got their vaccinations and 2020, the year the study was conducted.

It usually takes from 2 to 15 years for HPV infection to develop into cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) lesions, while the transition from CIN to advanced cancer stages usually takes 10–20 years.11,12

https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article/34/4/839/7675607

Because cervical cancer typically takes a long time to develop, most women who get cervical cancer are diagnosed after age 30.

Using figures from 2017-2019, Cancer Research UK says that in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, cervical cancer is most frequently diagnosed in women who are over 30.

In the UK as a whole, women age 30-34 have the highest incidence of new diagnoses of cervical cancer per 100,000, followed by women 35-39, women 40-44, women 45-49, women 25-30, women 50-54, women 55-59 - and continuing to decline in that order to age 90+.

But overall, more 88% of new cases of cervical cancer in the UK are diagnosed in women who are 30 and up.

https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/statistics-by-cancer-type/cervical-cancer/incidence#heading-One

Using figures from 2017-2021, the USA's National Cancer Institute at the NIH says that that in US:

Cervical cancer is most frequently diagnosed in women between the ages of 35 and 44, with the average age being 50. It rarely develops in women younger than 20.

https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/cervix.html

So a study that looks at cervical cancer cases and rates solely in young women age 24-32 needs to be recognized as only going so far. The fact that the young women in Scotland who were in this study appear to have been protected from cervical cancer by the HPV vaccine so far can't be taken as evidence of how the HPV vaccine will affect their risk of developing cervical cancer later on in life.

Also, I found it significant that this study of cervical cancer in young women in Scotland only looked at how many young women born in 1988-1996 had been diagnosed with full-blown cervical cancer by the time they reached 24-32. My hunch is that a better gauge of how effective the HPV vaccine is in preventing the HP virus in the first place would come from looking at how many women in the study ever had cervical smear test results that showed the worrying sorts of HPV-related changes which often appear long before cervical cancer.


I also wonder if anyone is doing ongoing testing of the people who've had the HPV vaccine to look for indicators of the vaccine's continuing efficacy, such as the presence, number and behavior of HPV antibodies.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7655971/

https://journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/jcm.01403-22

As of this date, it's not clear how long the protective effects of the HPV vaccines last.

Current global research suggests Gardasil®9 protection is long-lasting: more than 10 years of follow-up data in both boys and girls indicate the vaccines are still effective and there is no evidence of waning protection, although it is still unknown if recipients will need a booster in the future.

Other HPV vaccines show similar effectiveness.

In Scotland, recipients of the bivalent HPV vaccine Cervarix®—which protects against HPV 16 and 18—who became fully vaccinated against HPV at age 12 or 13 have had no cases of cervical cancer since the vaccine program started in 2008. [However, as I've pointed out, this cohort of people is still only 24-32; no one knows whether they will remain fully protected from HPV and free of cervical cancer their whole lives].

https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-hpv-vaccine-access-and-use-in-the-u-s/

Most of the language about longterm efficacy of the HPV vaccines in official documents is vague:

The protection provided by HPV vaccines lasts a long time. People who received HPV vaccines were followed for at least about 12 years, and their protection against HPV has remained high with no evidence of decreasing over time.

https://www.cdc.gov/hpv/vaccines/index.html#:~:text=The protection provided by HPV,evidence of decreasing over time.

Also, there have been changes in the formulations of different brands of the HPV vaccines since they were first introduced circa 2006:

Three vaccines that prevent infection with disease-causing HPV have been licensed in the United States: Gardasil, Gardasil 9 [both made by Merck] and Cervarix [made by GlaxoSmithKline].

Gardasil 9 has, since 2016, been the only HPV vaccine used in the United States. It prevents infection with the following nine HPV types:

HPV types 6 and 11, which cause 90% of genital warts (1)

HPV types 16 and 18, two high-risk HPVs that cause about 70% of cervical cancers and an even higher percentage of some of the other HPV-caused cancers (2–4)

HPV types 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58, high-risk HPVs that account for an additional 10% to 20% of cervical cancers

Cervarix prevents infection with types 16 and 18, and Gardasil prevents infection with types 6, 11, 16, and 18.

Both vaccines are still used in some other countries.

https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/causes-prevention/risk/infectious-agents/hpv-vaccine-fact-sheet

the original Gardasil doesn’t protect against the additional HPV strains that cause 20% of cervical cancers. So, while Gardasil-9 reduces your risk of cervical cancer by 90%, the original Gardasil reduces your risk by 70%.

Since 2017, Gardasil-9 has been the only HPV vaccine available in the United States. It provides the most comprehensive protection of any HPV vaccine.

https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/treatments/21613-hpv-vaccine

redfem-radpillSeptember 29, 2024(Edited September 29, 2024)

I think part of the reason they're crowing about it in this way is partly to emphasize that this vaccine in general is a good thing -- I remember being stunned about the degree, and irrationality, of the hostility to it when it first came out. It took years to get it made routine, and it felt like all the objections (which were passionated) wholly ignored the issue of lots of terrible and painful deaths of female people. As if the objectors were more concerned about something else. So they're probably still trying to kind of beat that back. It's more public communication about science than it is scientific communication. That's my guess, anyway. But thank you for all the great data on it!

[Edit: "You're saying our daughters are sluts and our sons are gay!!! We're coming for you!" was a lot of the tone, lol kind of]

ProxyMusicSeptember 29, 2024(Edited September 29, 2024)

I remember being stunned about the degree, and irrationality, of the hostility to it when it first came out. It took years to get it made routine, and it felt like all the objections (which were passionated) wholly ignored the issue of lots of terrible and painful deaths of female people. As if the objectors were more concerned about something else.

I'm one of the parents who responded with skepticism and objections when the HPV vaccine was first rolled out in the USA, and my memory of what happened and why is very different to yours. I think the questions and wariness that many of us had at the time were reasonable. Sure, maybe some people acted out of "irrationality" and "hostility" because deep down they were "more concerned about something else" like you claim. But I don't think it's fair to characterize all the objections and doubts that everyone had in that way.

As I recall it, the questions and objections that many of us had about the HPV vaccines when they were first introduced as products that girls as young as 9 should take arose out of an appropriate sense of adult/parental responsibility, legitimate concern for kids'/girls' longterm health, and what I believe was - and to this day remains - a levelheaded, healthy attitude of chariness towards new Big Pharma products, especially when it comes to kids. Along with a particular reluctance to use girls as guinea pigs for a new Big Pharma product whose longterm safety and efficacy were totally unknown at the time.

It's also definitely not true that "all the objections (which were passionated) wholly ignored the issue of lots of terrible and painful deaths of female people."

On the contrary, a main reason many parents objected is that we thought the way Big Pharma, public health authorities and the medical establishment in general originally pitched the HPV vaccine as something that preteen and teen girls and young women should be pressured to take - but not as something that it would be suitable for boys and young men to take - was extremely sexist. We thought it smacked of misogyny and reflected an exttremely careless attitude towards girls and women's longterm health. Some of us thought putting all the onus on girls and young women would end up being harmful to boys and men's health in the long run too.

As I'm sure you recall, when the first HPV vaccine - Gardisil 6 - was approved by the FDA in 2006, it was specifically approved solely for girls and young women. Government officials, the manufacturer, the medical establishment and the media made it clear that Gardisil 6 (and the other HPV vax Cervarix that came out the next year) were medical interventions they all agreed should be targeted at females only:

Quadrivalent HPV vaccine (HPV4; Gardasil, Merck & Co, Inc.) was licensed in 2006 for use in females aged 9 through 26 years, and the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended routine HPV4 vaccination of females aged 11 or 12 years, and catch-up vaccination for females aged 13 through 26 years (1).

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5920a4.htm

the recommended age for vaccination of females is 11--12 years. Vaccine can be administered as young as age 9 years. Catch-up vaccination is recommended for females aged 13--26 years who have not been previously vaccinated.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr5602a1.htm

To some people, the fact that all the onus and pressure for taking the new HPV vaccine was initially placed on young females - and none was placed on their male peers - smacked of a glaring and galling double standard.

Many of us suspected two strands of misogyny were at play. Along with one strand of misandry.

First, the medical establishment seemed to be displaying the same sort of cavalier attitude about the possible longterm consequences to female health that they'd displayed seen before in the case of other Big Pharma products peddled to women that ended up causing huge amounts of harm like DES, the original formulations of "the pill," the Dalkon shield, vaginal mesh, Essure, Alosetron and GnRHa drugs.

Second, by originally insisting that girls should take the HPV vaccine but not boys, the medical establishment seemed to be placing all the moral responsibility for reducing the rates of an commonplace STI that's found in both sexes - but which is more common in males than females - solely on the shoulders of young females. What's more, the burden of stamping out HPV was being placed on girls starting at age 9-12, when most girls are still so young they've not engaged in any consensual sex acts yet.

Third, some of us feared that by originally insisting that girls should take the HPV vaccine but not boys, the medical establishment was putting the longterm health of males at needless risk too. Because at the time that Gardisil was first approved by the FDA and marketed to girls in 2006, most people who were paying attention had already twigged to the fact that oral and throat cancers in men were rising - and there was already ample evidence that many of those cancers were linked to/caused by HPV, and specifically the same strains of HPV that cause cervical cancer.

I have more info on this topic written up in a file somwhere. I'll come back and post it later. But in the meantime, please don't be so quick to write off everyone who voiced objections to the new HPV vaccines being pushed on girls when they were first rolled out some years back as just a bunch of silly, idiotic, ill-informed nitwits who were all acting out of irrationality, hostility, denial and the kind of Victorian prudishness and weird homophobia you've ascribed to us. It's fine to disagree with the reasons people had for objecting. But it's not cool to misrepresent our reasons for objecting, or to suggest that we didn't really have any reasons at all.

redfem-radpillOctober 19, 2024

All very fair. But I wasn't characterizing everyone that way at all, I was just talking about the people who were responding that way. I think they got a lot of press, because they're what I remember reading about in the nooz...

RNPhalaropeSeptember 30, 2024

There is a good deal of truth in what you wrote.

At least now it is recommended for males as well.

I do know people who objected to it because SEX! My daughter will never have sex! Unlike your objections which are well reasoned and rational.

And finally, I believe it really has saved lives and protected many women.

SatanicPanicSeptember 30, 2024

My mom was against me getting it for the reasons you outline, and also because we had heard of multiple cases of young women getting the shot and then suddenly dying of apparently mysterious causes very soon after. Coupled with the feeling that girls my age were being used as medical Guinea pigs, we decided against me being in the first waves. I ended up getting it much later in life.

lemonhelicopterSeptember 29, 2024

In Texas, where then-governor Rick Perry tried to make HPV vaccines mandatory for adolescent girls in 2007, much of the objection came from the notion of treating girls like livestock. I'm not certain if other U.S. states have/had similar mandates or attempted mandates.

redfem-radpillOctober 19, 2024

That's a bizarre one.

[Deleted]September 29, 2024

I wonder if they eventually accepted it due to all the MEN getting throat cancer--Michael Douglas, Val Kilmer, etc.

redfem-radpillOctober 19, 2024

Ooooh, good point! Yes.

LillithSeptember 29, 2024(Edited September 29, 2024)

I actually had a doctor discourage me from getting it. She said it was moslty for ppl with certain lifestyles.

redfem-radpillOctober 19, 2024

Right. There were very conservative parents who had to have it explained to them that there is such a thing as sexual assault.

somegenerichandleSeptember 29, 2024(Edited September 29, 2024)

Wow. I mean it's something stupid like 80% of people over a certain age have some form of hpv or another. i know i found out right after i turned 17, but many people don't have any symptoms. When i was in my early 20s a friend had to have her cervix removed and just last year a long time family friend died of it, and one of my aunts back in 2007-ish. She was the second wife who died from it that married my uncle. But i get it, i was arguing with some women i knew they were all, "my daughter isn't having sex," little do they know it's transmittable orally.

LillithSeptember 29, 2024

Wow. I am so sorry all of that happened. This stuff is not a joke. And the anti vax sentiment that many Americans have is concerning.

somegenerichandleSeptember 29, 2024(Edited September 29, 2024)

They feel their bodily autonomy is at stake. I do feel there should be more choices, like vax without stabilizers -- that increase the shelf life. Or allow people to submit to a titer test. If they have the antibodies, they should have to have a shot. And remember healthcare is privatized, so at the end of the day, this means additional spending to many struggling families.

And thanks. I did pick up another strain of it in my mid 30s. A lot of people would say that's 'proof' that it doesn't work. But i paid attention and knew that going in it didn't cover every strain. A GP did tell me the visual ones are less likely to cause cancer, but i have no idea if that is true.

LillithSeptember 29, 2024

Great analysis. When I saw those birth years, it seemed unimpressive. A fine start to be sure, but we need to see another 30+ yrs.

Thank you for this intelligent comment. We all know how corrupt and lopsided pharma is.

[Deleted]September 28, 2024

I wish to god that this was available when I was younger--this, and knowledge about sunscreen! Gen X/late baby boomers had a deathwish!

RNPhalaropeSeptember 28, 2024

Definitely good news for women!

(And men as well.) HPV can lead to anal, throat, and other cancers.

jadegreenSeptember 29, 2024

I'm in the right age range but I wasn't allowed to get this as a minor and by the time I was 18 I wasn't of the right mind set to be thinking about preventative care. Thankfully all my paps have been normal.

I wonder if nowadays getting vaccinations are included in the medical care a minor can choose to pursue for herself. I know back then I could go to the doctors on my own and get most of my care without the input of my parents but they needed special parental consent for vaccines.

VestalVirginSeptember 29, 2024

Can't you still get it as adult, if you pay for it yourself?

I am considering doing that. (Reason I didn't get it when it came out was because I didn't trust they had taken enough care with the research, seeing as it was only recommended for women ... if it was really harmless, wouldn't they recommend it for males, too? But it has been on the market for a while now, so I am considering getting it.)

JBeauvoirSeptember 30, 2024

I got it at 30 after ahem multiple sexual partners. My doc felt any attempt to prevent cancer was worth it. Wish I'd gotten it sooner, but my mom was one of the puritanical objectors, and I didn't think about it much until my new Dr brought it up. I hope to goddess I got it in time because I've watched my sis deal with the bad HPV, and I wouldn't wish the treatments she endures on anyone.

[Deleted]September 29, 2024