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QuestionUpcoming UK election, who might win?
Hello, as someone from mainland Europe who has family in England (captured by the ideology unfortunately) I wanted to ask women from the Uk who you think will win.
My family there is claiming that Labour will completely smash the Tories (they're voting fot labour too) OR that Reform might have somewhat of a chance.
Who will be the winner in your opinions?
Even though I don't live there, I'm deeply concerned about the situation and can't help but worry about the young girls and women of my family there and all outside of it. I can't imagine Labour will make it easier for me to peak my family either, if they get into power...
Is the situation really that bleak? Is everyone really just voting for labour to get rid of the tories? The tories who are not much better in hindsight, because they allowed TWAW to engulf the country and are backpedalling now.
Will Labour decimate our safety with lax immigration laws and letting males play pretend?
I haven't heard much good about Reform either, I would love to find out more from the locals on all of that though.
Thanks!
Most polling has put Labor around 40%, the Torys 20%, Reform 16%, Libdems 10% and other parties making up the rest.
The UK has a "first past the post" voting system so who actually wins seats depends on how many votes the parties get in each seat.
I'm of the opinion that any one party with absolute control of a parliament is a danger and a large Labor majority would mean they could just do what they like with almost no controls, a bit like the USA if one party controlled the president + house and senate by a large margin and could push through any legislation they wanted with no opposition.
Labour will win.
We have had a steady pattern for a century now where Tories are in for a few goes, then Labour for a fraction of the Tory time, then it swings back fairly swiftly to Tory gov again.
What we really need is a small majority and a return to a robust opposition to hold the gov accountable. We’ve had awful governance for ages now but the open door held by the opposition has been surreal. Opposition is supposed to function to provide the opposition perspective, representing those who feel unheard by gov, to ground the egotistical decisions by gov, critique them effectively and hold them accountable and push for transparency. The opposition is almost more of a regulatory role in someways, which has entirely gone out the window this last while.
Change of gov is inevitable and certainly needed, but a return to effective democratic process is even more vital.
*edit: the best possible outcome would be if the likes of Duffield and Cates and Kemi etc all keep their seats, with bigger majorities, and POW get some seats (Julia Long especially but any and all and especially in constituencies where all other candidates are transcultists).
Labour are beyond odds on to smash the Conservatives. And the country has long needed a change, I'm surprised the Tories have been in for as long as they have.
The Conservatives have actually been surprisingly crap re immigration and "illegal arrivals". Apparently if you look at the stats there are more people coming in now than before - however that may be due to greater global instability now than previously.
The problem is the absurd tactics the Conservatives have tried, like the Rwanda thing - which was clearly supposed to be a deterrent (and arguably had some efficacy - supposedly a lot of asylum seekers went over to Ireland) rather than a solution - but it was so controversial it has just cost gazillions in the courts with endless delays. They would have been much better to build a facility on a remote Orkney Isle and use that as a deterrent.
(I'm not suggesting any kind of detention centre or deterrent is humane or ethical, just looking at it from a strategic and pragmatic point of view, which they clearly were).
The Rwanda thing was a copy of Australia's "pacific solution" which sent anyone who arrive by boat off to various pacific islands for years on end.
Yes, but the Pacific islands are in the vicinity, like an Orkney Isle would be.
Vs Rwanda which is continents away.
Labour will almost certainly win. We need to get rid of the Tories, they may be the best party in regards to the trans issues but they are awful for anything else. They've cut back all our public services while siphoning the money off to their rich friends. They're allowing the water companies to dump shit into our rivers because upgrading the infrastructure will affect the profits. The NHS is in a terrible state because it's been deliberately underfunded so the Tories have an excuse to privatise it later. If the Tories win again there will be more people living in poverty than ever.
I don't like Labour much either, and I very strongly oppose their reforms to the GRA, but I will be voting for them because the GRA is not the only issue and I don't want the Tories again. I can't vote for any other parties because the FPTP system means a vote for anyone other than Labour is a vote for the Tories.
If you think Labour will put funding into public services you should have a read of the ifs analysis of their manifesto. Tories is dire also, but informed choice matters and but the analysis of Labour spending plans and manifesto pledges make it obvious they will continue the bleak path we are currently.
https://ifs.org.uk/articles/labour-party-manifesto-initial-response
Tory is pitiful also
https://ifs.org.uk/articles/conservative-manifesto-initial-response
Where all parties leave household income
https://ifs.org.uk/calculators/what-are-parties-plans-benefits-and-taxes
This is probably worth a read also, explains where we are currently
https://ifs.org.uk/articles/tough-questions-will-face-election-winners
All women should choose who they think is best. Or least awful, because that’s what most of us do. But we shouldn’t be attached to thinking Labour= lots of public spending and increasing household income. We are not in the same position as a country that we were when Blair won, he had a strong economy to play with, and borrowed and heavily relied on PFIs to increase funds into public services. But that isn’t the situation that Keir will take on. I don’t buy Tories will be any better when it comes to protecting public services, but Labour won’t be the answer either. Neither do any other parties show any real understanding or transparency about how to effectively address this.
I do think we need change, and maybe whatever fuck up is coming will provide the shake up to provoke a stronger opposition finally or to push for a more robust grasp of economic policy. Because currently we have the same mythical thinking displayed by gender woo. I’m hopeful the fall out could lead to a leadership shift up on both sides that will lead to more actual representation of the electorates needs by both parties. But it won’t happen overnight. And there’s no chance that gender woo fluff waffle is a glitch in an otherwise common sense for the people grounded party, it’s a sign of their thought processes in all areas.
If Reform win any seats, you'll be looking at maybe one or two at most. People will likely vote for them as a protest vote, but Labour pretty much are going to win an overall majority. I wish I could be more optimistic about this but I don't trust Labour on women's rights now that trans issues have invaded politics and the left decided to support men in dresses. As far as immigration goes the Conservatives haven't been useful either. I feel as though that's partially why so many people are voting Reform in protest.
Tories def have been awful on immigration, and entirely disregarded the experience of the electorate.
Sunak wasn’t wrong in the debate though when he pointed out that there isn’t a straightforward answer. That most refugees are coming from Middle Eastern countries whose governments are not ones we can open a discussion about on this. Or just send them back like Starmer kept clinging to. But our infrastructure is in a desperate state and many people feel their needs and their communities needs are not met by sudden mass influx. Migration is generally a positive force for economic growth and development when it’s at a gradual pace, but this isn’t what we have happening. Whatever the answers are, people are not served by their representatives disregarding their experience and opinions on this. And there will be on going conflict regarding this going forward also, there’s no quick fix about to be presented by the worlds issues suddenly resolving. Any working solution needs to include listening to the voters voice.